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Heard a report on the BBC last night which
said two tests have been run recently at power
plants in the UK where their internal date was
set forward, and as the Y2K rollover occurred the
plants shut down. A lot of dire predictions
were condensed into a simulated 1/3/2000 news
broadcast of overlapping reports of
civilization's collapse, which terminated in
a wash of static. Like many news stories on
this topic, some mild, mocking jest was then
made of the situation, followed by discussion from
a panel of experts. One voice declared that panic
will ruin everything <3>,
that the problems can be fixed in time, but
those who can must do so, instead of being frightened
off to their survivalist redoubts. Another quite
sensible sounding voice declared that not every
computer needs fixing, that it was a management
problem to allocate the inadequate technical resources
logically. The example he used was clocks in microwave
ovens, although much larger systems are the real issue.
I couldn't agree more - this is the crisis that
should and will kill off obsolete old mainframe
technology, but we'll all suffer as it's going
down. I think that triage is absolutely necessary,
but the status quo is such that it won't happen - in
fact the reverse will occur - management won't be able
to declare anything non-critical - in fact,
more effort will be put into saving the unnecessary.
I base this upon my own mainframe experience - six
years through the early 80's (space agency tracking
system), and three months last year, on an Air Force
project from which I fled in disgust. Updates to these
systems, done the government way (which does
work) are incredibly labor- and time-intensive. And
as the beast has grown, more and more layers of
bureaucracy have been added to that process,
simultaneous with the attrition of creative,
enlightened people; leaving behind the most sluggish,
dogmatic, and least capable workers. Yet many of
the systems they maintain are critical, and the lack
of organizational enlightenment means no contingency
planning is possible, is even imaginable by
those that control these dinosaurs. We'll be better
off without them, but no alternative is in place.
Hence, stand by for an Atlas Shrugged-style
transfer of these old systems into the dustbin of
history. The systems I'm thinking of: Transportation
logistics and control, Treasury and the IRS, and global
telecommunications & local power generation control.
Admittedly, I've never worked in any of these
environments, so I don't know what I'm talking about.
(If you want more information check the
latest
news stories from Yahoo.)
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Glossary: BBC - British Broadcasting Corporation IMDb - Internet Movie Database IRS - Internal Revenue Service UK - United Kingdom Y2K - Year 2 Kilo Nihon - what the Japanese call their country |
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<1>But why that song, in the grocery
store? Oldies, okay, Beatles, fine, but why "Free As A Bird"? How can that
stimulate shopping? But it's not the strangest choice - a few years back in the
Falls Church Magruders (a supermarket chain local to Virginia) "A Day In The Life"
was played - that was fun.
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<2>Can't we restrict travel there to people
who actually like Japanese food?
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<3>which is my expectation - the
hysterical over-reactions will induce catastrophe
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